The RI Blog
11May/100

Are strategic defaults morally acceptable yet?

Sunday night, 60 Minutes featured an interesting piece featuring homeowners who were walking away from their mortgage obligations (who could otherwise pay) because they were underwater. Conventionally, these people would simply be considered to be “bums” and “deadbeats,” but at what point does a rational decision, based not on societal notions of responsibility, become acceptable? Well, it appears that now is the time.

We all have seen strategic defaulters and there are definitely some mixed feelings toward what they are doing. It should, however, be noted that it has been a standard practice in the business world for years. The most massive and eye-watering example was the recent decision by BlackRock to turn Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village over to creditors.

Roger Lowenstein wrote in January in the NYTimes Magazine that homeowners are supposed to be held to a higher moral standard:

… the average American, as if sprung from some Franklinesque mythology, is supposed to honor his debts, or so says the mortgage industry as well as government officials. Former Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. declared that “any homeowner who can afford his mortgage payment but chooses to walk away from an underwater property is simply a speculator — and one who is not honoring his obligation.”

19Apr/100

Shiller on a Double-Dip, Housing Prices and more…

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale, was recently interviewed on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack and addressed many of his (and most people’s) fears about the housing market. He, like many others, is particularly concerned about the growing possibility of a double dip in the housing market.

The federal government has supported over 80% of sales up until now. This will (mostly)  be coming to an end because the Federal Reserve has ceased buying MBS and the Home Buyer Tax Credit will expire at the end of the month.

Shiller doesn’t think that homebuyers have the same “naive optimism” that they had just 5 years ago. He is worried that prices will actually fall again (but stressed that he was not “predicting” that). This is mostly because of the shadow inventory that  is right around the corner.

Here is the complete interview:

9Apr/100

Debbie Downer Strikes Again!

debbie downer

Meredith Whitney (previously covered here) is featured in an interview with Leigh Gallagher, an assistant managing editor of Fortune. She predicts a rocky recovery for the housing market and thinks that more foreclosures are on the horizon.

17Mar/100

Meredith Whitney Sees a Double Dip in U.S. Housing Market

debbie downer

Meredith Whitney, the prominent and respected financial analyst said Tuesday that the housing market was "sure to double dip." Speaking on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange program, Whitney explained that this would be caused by the Federal Reserves recent apprehension to purchase mortgage-backed securities.

“The asset classes of MBS and Treasuries are priced for a material correction in my opinion,” she said. “The only buyers of agency MBS are the Fed and banks, so you see how precarious that market is..If the Fed pulls back, that’s a really big deal… because there’s no substitute buyer.”

22Feb/100

What Impact Will Frugality Have on the Real Estate Market?

The Village of Frugality (PA)

Chris Farrell, a BusinessWeek contributing editor and personal finance correspondent for NPR’s Marketplace Money argues that people are not going to borrow the way that they have before and considers recessions and recoveries of the past.

Each time that we have had a recession, be it the 1973-75, 1980, early 1990’s or early 2000’s, the mentality has been “we are going to save, not borrow.” Then, things turn around, business perks up, and people turn around and borrow even more than they did before.

This recession and recovery will be different, for a number of reasons, he argues:

  1. The banking industry is simply not going to lend like they did before and they won’t have the capacity to do so for a considerable amount of time.
  2. The regulators have been really embarrassed and are going to be far stricter with the banks.
  3. People will not want to borrow like they did before.

Ferrell spoke back in January about his new book,  The New Frugality: How to Consume Less, Save More, and Live Better. Here is a link to the part where he talks about lending, or start watching the whole thing below.

The New Frugality: How to Consume Less, Save More, and Live Better [Amazon]

Image credit: "Village of Frugality" by "coneslayer" on Flickr
15Feb/100

“Hey Hank – Why’d we miss the Housing Crisis?”

500px-Henry_Paulson_official_Treasury_photo,_2006 You’ve undoubtedly seen former Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson all over the tube in the past few days – out doing his part to peddle his new memoir On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System. His account is being received pretty positively, for the most part. I’m going to start it today, but I always love watching the big interviews that are given preceding a book launch.

Now, for our purposes here, Paulson has elaborated on the housing market and why it happened too fast to do anything about, and the potential risk of a “double dip.”

Paulson also touches on redefault rates, which were awful then and horrific now.

When he came to the swamp, he says that he knew that we were “due” for a credit crisis. What do you think? Couldn’t we – didn’t we see this happening?

 

P.S.: If you haven’t gotten your fix of Paulson, he is going to give a webcast from SAIS at Johns Hopkins University Feb. 16th at 5:30 P.M. (EST).

Related Posts with Thumbnails