30-Year Fixed Rates Still Attractive?
The Federal Reserves decision to stop purchasing MBS last month seems to not have particularly affected the 30-year fixed rate, according to Scott Grannis:
Message to homebuyers: interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages are extremely attractive from an historical perspective, since they are now about as low as they have ever been. Given the great uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy (i.e., how much will the Fed have to raise short-term rates to keep inflation at bay, given the Fed's massive $1 trillion injection of bank reserves), fixed rates also look very attractive relative to adjustable rate mortgages.
I don’t know if I particularly buy this. First, I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that the FEDs decision to stop MBS purchases had any impact whatsoever on the 30-year rate, at least not this fast.
But, I’m no economist, of course…
Shiller on a Double-Dip, Housing Prices and more…
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale, was recently interviewed on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack and addressed many of his (and most people’s) fears about the housing market. He, like many others, is particularly concerned about the growing possibility of a double dip in the housing market.
The federal government has supported over 80% of sales up until now. This will (mostly) be coming to an end because the Federal Reserve has ceased buying MBS and the Home Buyer Tax Credit will expire at the end of the month.
Shiller doesn’t think that homebuyers have the same “naive optimism” that they had just 5 years ago. He is worried that prices will actually fall again (but stressed that he was not “predicting” that). This is mostly because of the shadow inventory that is right around the corner.
Here is the complete interview:
Debbie Downer Strikes Again!

Meredith Whitney (previously covered here) is featured in an interview with Leigh Gallagher, an assistant managing editor of Fortune. She predicts a rocky recovery for the housing market and thinks that more foreclosures are on the horizon.
Private Transfer Fees?!? What’s Next!!!
I've heard a lot of complaining lately about the ingenious new trend that builders and developers are pursuing: "private transfer fees." Essentially, the developer inserts a covenant that requires a percentage of every transaction to be paid to them for a period lasting for a very long time (often about 100 years). Obviously, they need to put a little lipstick on this pig and here is how they try to defend this:
- It's good for consumers (somehow)
- It lessens the upfront costs for the builders (huh?)
Well, I understand their zeal for pursuing this, I really do. Wouldn't you like to have a nice little future revenue stream - one that is not negotiable and virtually endless? Now, PTF's have been used in a pretty useful way for a while, often benefiting an environmental concern or a property association or even community centers. These things add value, as opposed to simply siphoning-off a fee and imposing a lien if it is not paid everytime a transaction occurs. They are even starting to securitize these future fees into pools of tradeable assets, basically creating a collateralized bond (sounds like a pretty audacious financial innovation, considering...).
I would encourage you to flip through the American Land Title Association's white paper (pdf!) on the subject. It lays out the potential dangers of the practice pretty nicely. I would also urge you to support any local effort to challenge this because it could haunt the real estate industry for years if it is not stopped.
Let me know what you think...
Meredith Whitney Sees a Double Dip in U.S. Housing Market
Meredith Whitney, the prominent and respected financial analyst said Tuesday that the housing market was "sure to double dip." Speaking on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange program, Whitney explained that this would be caused by the Federal Reserves recent apprehension to purchase mortgage-backed securities.
“The asset classes of MBS and Treasuries are priced for a material correction in my opinion,” she said. “The only buyers of agency MBS are the Fed and banks, so you see how precarious that market is..If the Fed pulls back, that’s a really big deal… because there’s no substitute buyer.”
What Impact Will Frugality Have on the Real Estate Market?
Chris Farrell, a BusinessWeek contributing editor and personal finance correspondent for NPR’s Marketplace Money argues that people are not going to borrow the way that they have before and considers recessions and recoveries of the past.
Each time that we have had a recession, be it the 1973-75, 1980, early 1990’s or early 2000’s, the mentality has been “we are going to save, not borrow.” Then, things turn around, business perks up, and people turn around and borrow even more than they did before.
This recession and recovery will be different, for a number of reasons, he argues:
- The banking industry is simply not going to lend like they did before and they won’t have the capacity to do so for a considerable amount of time.
- The regulators have been really embarrassed and are going to be far stricter with the banks.
- People will not want to borrow like they did before.
Ferrell spoke back in January about his new book, The New Frugality: How to Consume Less, Save More, and Live Better. Here is a link to the part where he talks about lending, or start watching the whole thing below.
The New Frugality: How to Consume Less, Save More, and Live Better [Amazon]
Image credit: "Village of Frugality" by "coneslayer" on Flickr
The New Real Estate Reality of 2010
Glenn Melton, CEO of Realty Executives International (and nutty lawsuit litigant), gives us a preview of what 2010 will bring us. Here are a few of his points (they are shocking):
To accommodate their new demands, the real estate industry must take a progressive approach to engage clients through technology and forms of new media communications.
and…
Social media is here to stay and resistance is only prolonging the inevitable and resulting in missed opportunities to grow.
The New Real Estate Reality of 2010 – Expand Your Scope and Understanding [rismedia.com]








