Are strategic defaults morally acceptable yet?
Sunday night, 60 Minutes featured an interesting piece featuring homeowners who were walking away from their mortgage obligations (who could otherwise pay) because they were underwater. Conventionally, these people would simply be considered to be “bums” and “deadbeats,” but at what point does a rational decision, based not on societal notions of responsibility, become acceptable? Well, it appears that now is the time.
We all have seen strategic defaulters and there are definitely some mixed feelings toward what they are doing. It should, however, be noted that it has been a standard practice in the business world for years. The most massive and eye-watering example was the recent decision by BlackRock to turn Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village over to creditors.
Roger Lowenstein wrote in January in the NYTimes Magazine that homeowners are supposed to be held to a higher moral standard:
… the average American, as if sprung from some Franklinesque mythology, is supposed to honor his debts, or so says the mortgage industry as well as government officials. Former Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. declared that “any homeowner who can afford his mortgage payment but chooses to walk away from an underwater property is simply a speculator — and one who is not honoring his obligation.”
Where Home Equity is Evaporating the Quickest (Map)
Forbes has compiled a list of 11 real estate markets with home values which are still declining quickly. Here is how they determined these areas:
Using data from Moody's Economy.com and Equifax, we measured the percentage of home equity--or the amount invested in the home, plus or minus any price appreciation or depreciation--relative to the home's current value in the country's 200 largest metropolitan statistical areas. We ranked metros based on data from the first quarter of this year. We also included numbers from 2006 and 2008 for reference.
Here are the markets:
- Modesto, CA
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
- Phoenix-Mesa-Glenda, AZ
- Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
- Stockton, CA
- Merced, CA
- Reno-Sparks, NV
- Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, CA
- Anchorage, AK
- Bremerton-Silverdale, WA
Take a peek at the appraisers job
I just read a fascinating article by David Feldman of First American Valuation Services on HousingWire. I think that it’s important for Realtors to understand how the market is changing from other professionals points of view – in this case, the appraiser.
What we all can see now is that at some point during the last decade or so, we lost respect for accurate collateral evaluations. Appraisals seemed to become less respected by some and others even questioned why we even needed appraisals at all.
Feldman explains that, despite the newfound respect for the need of accurate appraisals, new tensions are emerging:
Ironically, as appraisals and other forms of valuation are now more relevant than ever, our industry finds itself not only in turmoil, but also in the spotlight. Homeowners and their agents (mortgage brokers and realtors) are vociferously complaining about low values for refis and blown sales deals. There are new rules governing the selection of appraisers. Servicers and investors are looking for more efficient ways to value a sea of distressed assets. Lenders and GSEs are requiring appraisers to do new kinds of analysis (though not always for more money.) And tensions are at an all time high between independent appraisers and appraisal management companies (AMCs).
It’s a long article, but has a lot of value for real estate professionals.
Valuing Real Estate in the Early Stages of Market Recovery [HousingWire]
Weekly Roundup
Here are some the more interesting and useful real estate articles and posts that I've come across this week. Did I miss anything?
“Smell” this house! – more MLS laughs [Agent Genius]
Marketing 101 for Real Estate Companies [WAV Group]
Altos: New sellers up asking prices [WSJ] If you burn all of your bridges, you will have no way out of the castle [Agent Genius]
Foreclosure easing in big cities but still spreading [CNNMoney]
Retire to Mexico -- the price is right [CNNMoney] If you do, go to CaboHomes4U.com!
Ending Tax Credit Triggers New-Home Sales Surge in March 2010 [RISMedia]Ten cities may continue struggling regardless of national market [Agent Genius]
The Real Story On Housing [Seeking Alpha]
Can I Get A RETS Feed? [Geek Estate Blog]
The Case VS. Shiller Index
On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s released the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and they note an odd and uncomfortable mix, often quite varied by region:
…the annual rates of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved in February compared to January 2010. For the first time since December 2006, the annual rates of change for the two Composites are positive. The 10-City Composite is up 1.4% from where it was in February 2009, and the 20-City Composite is up 0.6% versus the same time last year. However, 11 of 20 cities saw year over-year declines.
Of course, there are parts for everybody to latch onto. Optimists love the part about relative gains being made against February 2009 numbers. A lot can be made of the numbers, depending on what you want to think. One person, who (for obvious reasons), should be listened to is Karl Case, who feels that:
We’ve turned a corner with housing. As long as mortgage rates don’t jump and employment continues to improve, we should see housing play a key role in preventing a double-dip recession.
Well, I tend to agree with him. As long as mortgage rates don’t jump and employment continues to improve.
The Feds
Interestingly, the other half of the index (Robert Shiller) specifically warned against hopes of avoiding a double-dip recession just a few weeks ago. His major worries were the ending lifelines offered by the federal government to the housing sector. The Federal Reserve ended MBS purchases and the expiration of the homebuyer’s tax credit.
First American CoreLogic wanted to see what impact an extension of the federal housing stimulus programs would have, so they conducted a simulation (full report here). The results yielded an underwhelming result:
Two simulations, one with the Federal Housing stimulus extended and one with the Federal Housing stimulus ending in April 2010, revealed that the forecasted year-over-year growth rates between the two scenarios ranged from a decline of 4.2 percent if the tax credits are removed to an increase of 4.1percent if the tax credits are extended.
Above are the results of the simulation (click for larger size). Like the real thing, this simulation shows lots of diversity, depending on the region.
So, what are we going to see going forward? Well, I tend to think we will probably go “sideways,” and hope to god we don’t go too much farther backwards.
Top Ten Mortgage Fraud States (Map)
CNNMoney.com reports that the Mortgage Asset Research Institute (MARI) has released a report which shows incidents of fraud comitted by mortgage industry professionals had increased by 7% in 2009.
The jump in mortgage fraud is a troubling trend, given that it played a big role in setting the housing crisis in motion, with mortgage professionals doing things like listing false income claims for borrowers, and overstating a home's appraised value.
And the statistics may not capture the entire picture, according to Jennifer Butts of LexisNexis Mortgage Asset Research, since fraud isn't usually detected until a loan goes bad.
10 Top scam states |
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10 Top Mortgage Fraud States [CNNMoney.com]
More on the Looming Shadow Inventory Problem
The Wall Street Journal reports that it will take 103 months to clear up the huge inventory of homes that banks have amassed due to foreclosures.
1.1 million homes are in the hands of banks (as of March) – about 20% more than there were a year ago. Data from LPS Applied Analytics suggests that it will take over 8 years, at current sales rates, to clear that up.
But Wait! There’s More!
Just around the corner are more than 4.8 million homes that are at least 60 days past due or foreclosing. This shadow inventory is also up from last year – by 30%.
Despite HAMP, many of these loans will, ultimately, be foreclosed. And the banks will have even more stagnant inventory on their hands.
This could have serious consequences for any recovery in the housing market.





